Grant performance measures · scenario planning
Achievable-Target Band Calculator for Grant Performance Measures
Setting a retention or persistence target? Explore how cohort size and an assumed improvement change the range of possible outcomes before discussing a target with your team.
For grant writers and project directors. This calculator shows sampling variation under your assumptions. It cannot establish that an improvement is achievable. All default values are fictional.
Explore a scenario
Use a binary outcome: each participant either meets a defined measure or does not. For credit accumulation, use the percentage reaching a specified credit threshold, not average credits.
Conditional outcome band
Pilot scope and deliverables
The bounded deliverable is one scenario, an exact 95% binomial outcome band, the probability of meeting a proposed target, and a methods sentence. This free calculator keeps your inputs in your browser. Cookie-free analytics measure aggregate page visits; see our privacy policy.
Sample evidence and process
Mock example: 300 participants, baseline 65%, assumed change +3 percentage points. Run the independent recipes to compare simulation quantiles against exact binomial quantiles. Simulation runs approximate the same distribution; R and Python random draws need not match.
Download Python recipe · Download R recipe
Define the outcome, denominator and time window; enter a defensible assumed rate; compare scenarios; then review the assumptions with your team. The displayed band uses exact binomial quantiles so it does not vary across clicks.
Limitations
The baseline is treated as known and the improvement as assumed. Participants must be independent with the same probability. No adjustment is made for missing outcomes, clustered programs, changing cohorts, subgroup differences or baseline uncertainty. The band is for a future observed count, not a confidence interval for the true rate. A high target probability does not demonstrate a program effect or sponsor compliance.
Questions before using a target
Does the calculator recommend a grant target?
No. It compares a proposed target with an assumed future rate. Evidence for the improvement, measure definitions and sponsor requirements require separate review.
Can I compare Pell subgroups?
Run separate scenarios only as descriptive planning. This tool does not estimate subgroup gaps or account for small-cell privacy or multiple comparisons.
What would a scoped pilot cover?
A possible follow-on is a measure-design memo reviewing definitions, denominator rules, baseline evidence and scenario assumptions. Scope and availability must be discussed. No price or validated commercial offer is established here.
Next step
Review this mock output with your grants team. For a scope discussion, use the existing DASS contact page and describe the measure, cohort, reporting window and available baseline data. Share no student-level data through an initial inquiry.
Request a scoped pilot